The drop reflects broader global economic challenges, including sluggish recovery, persistently high inflation and rising living costs, which have directly impacted the income of overseas Vietnamese.

Tight monetary policies in major economies have also weighed on production, employment and savings capacity, further limiting remittance flows.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have added pressure by driving energy price volatility and global inflation. While remittances from the region account for a relatively small share, the impact has been felt indirectly through rising living costs and reduced real incomes.

Domestically, although Vietnam’s macroeconomic environment remains stable, some investment channels have yet to become sufficiently attractive to draw in remittance flows. A relatively narrow interest rate gap between the Vietnamese dong and the US dollar has also made overseas Vietnamese more cautious about transferring funds.

Seasonal factors have played a role as well. Remittance inflows typically decline in the first quarter following peak transfers during the year-end and Lunar New Year period.

Looking ahead, the central bank expects remittance flows to stay subdued in the near term due to ongoing global uncertainties. However, inflows may gradually recover in subsequent quarters as economic activity and employment conditions improve.

Despite the short-term decline, the slowdown presents an opportunity for Ho Chi Minh City to recalibrate its strategy, including improving the investment climate, diversifying financial channels and strengthening policies to better engage overseas Vietnamese.

HCM City's steady remittance inflow reflects policy effectiveness

Ho Chi Minh City received almost US$8 billion in overseas remittances in the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a steady upward trend driven by favourable policies and investment environment.