International scholars praise Vietnam as Asia’s rising star

Vietnam’s development story

Taylor and Korsmoe conceived the idea for their book "Vietnam- Asia’s Rising Star” during the COVID-19 pandemic and spent a total of three years completing the work.

The book revolves around the hypothesis that Vietnam will be the next "economic dragon" of Asia, developing similarly to the Republic of Korea (RoK) and Taiwan (China) in becoming a high-income country. The authors study and analyze six key aspects, including economic growth indicators, export values, industrialization processes, high-quality human resources, international market access, and the state’s leadership role.

The two authors have designed and conducted unique research in an effort to identify the opportunities and challenges that the nation faces in realising its goal of escaping the middle-income trap and becoming a high-income country by 2050, comparing Vietnamese development with that of the RoK and Taiwan (China).

The book is filled with tables, studies, and analysis, but does not come across as dry. The authors integrate their research with an introduction into the Vietnamese political system, its history, economy, and socio-cultural characteristics. They recount the nation’s development story from after reunification to the present, illustrating the dynamics that will drive forward future development.

In fact, Taylor and Korsmoe have a combined experience of nearly 60 years with Vietnam. The two experts first arrived in the country in the 1990s, directly witnessing and experiencing the nation's transformation from one of the poorest countries in Asia to a middle-income nation as it strives to become a high-income country by 2045. Taylor has worked in business and finance, while Korsmoe has been involved in journalism, literature, and education.

In addition to presenting their findings through data analysis and case studies, the pair highlight two key traits driving Vietnam's growth of "determined will" and "pragmatic thinking". The authors argue that these are valuable and abundant resources as the nation works to overcome difficult times, implement reforms, integrate more deeply into the world economy, and move towards a brighter future.

Determined will is an innate quality in the DNA of the Vietnamese people. But like any other inherent talent, it is not enough on its own. It needs to be combined with another cultural quality. For the Vietnamese, that quality is pragmatic thinking, the book states.

Discussing the role of determined will and pragmatic thinking in politics, the authors assess that the Vietnamese leadership has listened attentively to the people’s views and is continuously adjusting policies to make them more effective. They note that Vietnam has demonstrated accountability and has an effective political mechanism in place to improve the lives of the majority of citizens.

Forecast of Vietnam’s high-income scenarios

After looking into historical trends and proving them with data, the book addresses questions about future Vietnamese development, specifically if Vietnam can maintain high growth rates like in recent years? Will Vietnam escape the middle-income trap? How will Vietnam become a high-income country?

The authors identify the "cards" the nation can play to become a high-income country, including attracting global manufacturers, mobilizing citizens to act for the common good, leveraging demographic and urbanization advantages, promoting women’s roles, utilising diverse natural resources, capitalizing on the overseas Vietnamese community, leading in technology, and skillfully managing international relations.

The book concludes that Vietnam has many cards in hand and these advantages will define its future in the 2020s and beyond. The nation may also provide answers to many questions about the future that have yet to be answered.

The authors point out the opportunities and challenges the nation faces in realizing its goal of escaping the middle-income trap and becoming a high-income country by 2050, comparing it to the RoK and Taiwan (China)’s development. In doing so, the Vietnamese side must harness its "golden population" structure and develop a high-quality workforce, particularly in science and technology, as well as formulate policies to tackle an aging population.

Regarding the possibility of Vietnam becoming a high-income country, the book presents three scenarios:

-  The standard scenario, where the Vietnamese economy will grow at 6.23% per year from 2023 to 2050, a rate similar to the past two decades.

-   The cautious scenario, where the Vietnamese economy will grow at 5.23% per year from 2023 to 2050, 1% slower than the standard scenario.

-  The optimistic scenario, where the Vietnamese economy will grow at 7.23% per year from 2023 to 2050, 1% faster than the standard scenario.

Vietnam has proven that it can maintain stable economic growth over several decades. The resources and advantages available today will continue to sustain growth in the future. According to both authors’ analysis, Vietnam will become a high-income country by 2035, in the optimistic scenario, or by 2045, in the cautious scenario. Certainly, achieving high-income status by around 2040, in the standard scenario, would be a tremendous achievement, the book says.

The authors hope that Vietnam will complete its goal of becoming a high-income country and will stand as a successful story of a war-torn nation rising to prosperity. They also hope their book will inspire both Vietnamese citizens and foreigners in Vietnam to further contribute to the country’s development, becoming part of the nation’s marvelous story.