The bank noted that Vietnam surprised the market with growth reaching 8.2% year-on-year in the third quarter, easily beating expectations of 7.2%.

Experts said Vietnam’s growth momentum is supported not only by trade but also by domestic resilience. Despite challenges in merchandise trade, the services sector continues to anchor overall growth. Retail sales have shown meaningful improvement, while tourism remains buoyant as Vietnam leads ASEAN in tourism recovery. In addition, the government’s push for mega-infrastructure projects has boosted construction activity.

There is potential for further growth if public investment disbursement accelerates, as only about 50% of the annual plan had been realized by the end of the third quarter.

In fact, major export sectors such as electronics, computers, components, and garments posted double-digit growth. Export turnover in the third quarter reached US$128.6 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, pushing the trade surplus to US$3 billion, double the figure recorded in the first half of the year. Notably, exports to the US surged by nearly 30%, reflecting Vietnam’s ability to capitalize on the ongoing global supply chain shift.

Industrial production expanded by 10% year-on-year in the third quarter, driven largely by robust growth in consumer electronics and electronic components. Meanwhile, retail sales rose 12%, and the tourism sector exceeded expectations, welcoming 15 million international visitors, equivalent to 120% of pre-pandemic levels.

HSBC analysts also highlighted Vietnam’s strong macroeconomic management amid global uncertainties. Headline inflation stood at 3.4% in September, in line with market expectations, while core inflation remained at 3.2% year-on-year, well below the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s 4.5-5% ceiling.

Economists emphasized that FDI continues to be a key driver of Vietnam’s growth. Total FDI increased 15% year-on-year as of the third quarter, though new registered capital fell 9%. Interestingly, Vietnam’s FDI composition has shifted this year. In 2024, Singapore, the Republic of Korea (RoK), and mainland China were the top three investors. However, Singapore and mainland China now each account for about a quarter of new FDI, while the RoK’s share has declined, with the United States filling the gap. This shows that despite trade uncertainties, the world’s two largest economies remain committed to investing in Vietnam.

With Vietnam’s economic outperformance setting it apart in ASEAN, HSBC not only lifted its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 7.9% but also revised its 2026 projection upward from 5.8% to 6.7%. The bank slightly raised its inflation forecasts to 3.3% for 2025 and 3.5% for 2026, noting that inflation remains largely contained.

Vietnam sees tourism boom but trade uncertainties remain: HSBC

VOV.VN - Unlike trade uncertainty, Vietnam’s appeal as a tourist destination has undoubtedly risen, as the country’s tourism sector set a new monthly record by welcoming over two million international visitors, a nearly 40% year-on-year increase, according to HSBC’s latest “Vietnam at a Glance” report.