The assessment was made by Dr. Frederic Neumann, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC, and Yun Liu, Senior ASEAN Economist at HSBC.

HSBC economists said “uncertainty has become the new certainty” in the current global environment, as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, volatile markets and soaring oil prices continue to weigh on fast-growing ASEAN economies, particularly Vietnam.

They noted that rising energy costs pose challenges to growth across many Asian economies. In Vietnam, the initial impact has already appeared in inflation data, with both March and April figures exceeding the central bank’s inflation ceiling.

However, the economists said the current challenges also present an opportunity for countries to rethink energy strategies and economic policies amid rapid global changes.

While markets remain focused on short-term energy concerns, HSBC said many of Vietnam’s structural strengths remain intact.

The bank described 2025 as a volatile year for Vietnam amid tariff-related pressures, but said the country still recorded GDP growth of 8%, making it Asia’s second-fastest growing economy after Taiwan.

HSBC also noted that Vietnam achieved record-high trade turnover despite tariff headwinds. The bank said Vietnam’s established position in global electronics trade helped offset the fading impact of front-loading activities by exporters rushing shipments abroad.

According to the economists, Vietnam’s growing role in electronics manufacturing did not emerge overnight but was the result of long-term efforts to attract quality foreign direct investment, improve the business environment and move up the value chain.

While textiles and footwear once dominated Vietnam’s export structure, electronic products now account for more than one-third of the country’s exports. HSBC said Vietnam has expanded its role in final electronics assembly, particularly in consumer electronics, supported by supply-chain diversification among multinational technology firms such as Samsung.

The bank noted that Vietnam’s share of global consumer electronics exports, including smartphones, printers and computers, has risen from almost zero to between 8% and 15% over the past 15 years, despite mainland China continuing to dominate the sector.

Besides consumer electronics, Vietnam is also seeking to move further up the value chain by targeting the integrated circuits segment. HSBC said Vietnam has gained market share in certain consumer electronics categories in the United States despite tariff risks.

The economists also stressed the importance of expanding into new export markets. Vietnam currently has a broad network of free trade agreements, including the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement.

While many tariff barriers have been removed, HSBC said further progress could be made in addressing non-tariff barriers such as import licensing requirements and lengthy customs procedures.

The bank also noted that Vietnam’s trade exposure to ASEAN markets remains among the lowest in the region. It said reducing non-tariff barriers could help unlock greater intra-regional trade potential.

Beyond ASEAN, HSBC suggested Vietnam could also explore opportunities in markets such as South America and the Middle East, although trade volumes with those regions remain relatively small.

HSBC said tariff uncertainty has prompted many investors to adopt a cautious “wait-and-see” approach in the short term. However, the bank maintained that Vietnam’s long-term advantages remain intact, citing openness to FDI, infrastructure connectivity, labour cost competitiveness, talent development and an established manufacturing ecosystem.

The economists also highlighted the importance of domestic consumption, saying Vietnam’s domestic demand story is often overlooked compared to its export performance. They pointed to long-term trends such as an improving labour market, urbanisation and a growing middle class as key drivers of future consumption.

HSBC added that Vietnam’s fast-growing e-commerce sector and the rise of Generation Z could create additional growth opportunities in the years ahead.

Think tanks said economic challenges remain, but opportunities for Vietnam still exist if the country adopts appropriate policies.

Vietnam emerges as Asia’s fastest-growing economy despite tariff headwinds: HSBC

VOV.VN - Despite a turbulent year, Vietnam recorded annual growth of up to 8% in 2025, in line with HSBC expectations, emerging as Asia’s fastest-growing economy, according to the bank’s latest “Vietnam at a Glance” report.