Export growth in second half forecast to fall below expectations
VOV.VN - Export growth during the first half of the year stood at 17% from the same period in 2021, however, according to forecasts made by HSBC, Vietnamese exports in the second half of the year will struggle to meet expectations.
The report "Vietnam at a glance” was published on August 17 by HSBC and shows that, following an impressive growth rate of 17% in the opening six months of the year, Vietnamese exports in the second half of the year are anticipated to be lower-than-expected.
The main reason behind this is the slow growth of the electronics sector, especially mobile phones. Specifically, Samsung's second half results indicate that demand for consumer electronics is in the process of weakening, thereby impacting smartphones, televisions, and other products.
However, garments and textiles, and footwear enjoyed strong growth of 30% on-year. Despite this growth, the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association has forecast that upcoming orders will fall, thereby raising questions. about how long the sustainability of these items can be maintained.
Furthermore, import growth also slowed, only rising slightly by 3.4% compared with double-digit growth recorded in previous months. This can partially be put down to falling energy prices, which in turn reduces bills for imported goods such as iron and steel, coal, and crude oil.
However, it is worth noting that imports of phone-related items dropped by 8% on-year, which may lead to an increase in the stagnation of the consumer electronics cycle.
Although growth in terms of both exports and imports was not high, the trade balance remained flat in July.
HSBC's report highlights that, despite unpredictable developments in the global economic picture, the national economy continued to reap certain successes.
In line with this, retail sales recorded a record high annual growth of more than 55%.
This was partly due to favourable effects as consumption momentum continued to increase strongly for both goods and services.
In particular, the sales of tourism-related industries can be seen as remarkable, witnessing double-digit growth over four consecutive months.
July also saw the nation attract more than 350,000 international tourists, triple the monthly average in the first half of the year, thereby bringing the total number of visitors to the country up to one million.