AMRO said the economy has shown notable resilience in the face of prolonged global uncertainty, with growth supported by export-oriented manufacturing, sustained foreign direct investment (FDI) and stable domestic demand.

Chief Economist Anthony Tan said Vietnam’s economic growth is projected to ease to around 7.2% in 2026–2027 as momentum from strong export demand last year gradually weakens, while domestic demand is expected to remain stable, supported by ongoing policy measures, including the extension of value-added tax (VAT) reductions and planned public infrastructure spending.

Inflation has so far remained contained, staying below the government’s operational ceiling of 4.5%, AMRO said. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East since February 28 have pushed up global energy prices, leading to a sharp rise in retail fuel prices in Vietnam in early March. Prolonged high energy prices could weigh on growth by increasing inflationary pressures and dampening domestic demand. Continued credit growth and rising public spending are also expected to add to price pressures.

AMRO said Vietnam’s near-term macro-financial conditions require a cautious and effective policy mix to stabilise growth while containing emerging risks. Fiscal policy should prioritise targeted support for vulnerable sectors amid rising energy prices, rather than broad-based expansion, with a focus on efficient spending without exacerbating macro-financial pressures.

The report also noted that strong growth alongside emerging financial risks suggests Vietnam needs to gradually tighten its accommodative monetary policy stance, while closely monitoring liquidity and foreign exchange conditions. Financial authorities should strengthen macroprudential oversight, particularly in real estate and household lending.

Over the longer term, AMRO said Vietnam should focus on three closely linked policy priorities. These include accelerating domestic industrial upgrading by strengthening linkages between FDI and domestic firms and increasing domestic value-added content; enhancing policy frameworks in line with the economy’s growing complexity, including modernising monetary and fiscal frameworks, revenue mobilisation and public investment management; and advancing financial sector and capital market reforms to improve capital allocation and reduce incentives for speculative capital outflows.

Vietnam weathers economic shocks effectively: AMRO

The 2026 ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) highlights Vietnam’s strong resilience to regional and global volatility, noting its rapid integration into global supply chains and its emergence as a leading destination for foreign direct investment (FDI).

AMRO forecasts Vietnam to lead growth in ASEAN+3 in 2026

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2026 at 7.6%, the highest among ASEAN+3 economies, in its quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO) released on January 21.