The main inflationary pressures in 2026 year are expected to stem from cost-push factors, a recovery in domestic consumption, and the lagged effects of credit expansion, requiring close coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. Several economists note that delayed impacts from previous credit growth will continue to weigh on price stability.

However, as credit growth in 2025 was not excessively high compared to the 10-year average, its inflationary impact is projected to stay limited - particularly as capital flows have largely been directed toward asset markets rather than sharply boosting consumer demand. Still, Vietnam’s ambitious GDP growth target of around 10% in 2026 could generate additional price pressures, as stronger economic expansion would require robust increases in both investment and consumption.

Exchange rate movements are also forecast to influence CPI in 2026. In addition to lagged effects from the previous year, currency pressures may arise from rising imports driven by stronger domestic demand. Meanwhile, export growth could face headwinds amid slower global economic expansion.

“Inflationary risks are still evident, especially given the high degree of openness of our economy,” said Pham Thanh Ha, deputy governor of the State Bank of Vietnam. “Total import–export turnover this year is projected to exceed US$900 billion, roughly double the size of the economy. Global commodity prices are volatile due to geopolitical developments, rising trade protectionism and tariff policies. Domestically, there is also a roadmap for adjusting prices of state-managed goods and services.”

On the other hand, upward pressure from global commodity prices is expected to remain moderate. With global growth projected to stay subdued, commodity prices are unlikely to surge sharply in 2026, although the scope for further deep declines as seen in 2025 appears limited.

Economist Dr. Ngo Tri Long forecasts that inflation in 2026 would be kept under control, supported by the solid recovery momentum from 2025.

“Building on the strong recovery of 2025, Vietnam is well positioned to achieve growth above 8% in 2026 while keeping inflation within the National Assembly’s target of below 4.5%,” he says. “The firm economic foundation established in 2025 creates favourable conditions for the year ahead.”

Economists broadly agree that inflation control will require disciplined policy coordination. Rather than simultaneously loosening fiscal and monetary policies in ways that could heighten risks, experts recommend a calibrated approach by combining controlled fiscal expansion with prudent monetary management.

In addition, credit allocation should be directed toward productive sectors that generate new goods, new capacity and genuine productivity gains, rather than flowing into speculative or high-risk activities.

Inflationary risk persists as Vietnam targets CPI below 4.5% in 2026: experts

Although inflationary pressures in 2026 are not expected to be particularly high, several risks remain due to the volatility in global energy, fuel and commodity prices, according to Nguyen Thi Huong, director of the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Finance.