Large-scale projects come to the fore

Housing supply in 2025 recorded its strongest growth in five years. According to the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS), by September total housing supply had exceeded 100,000 units, up 22% from the whole of 2024. More than 86,000 of these were newly launched units, 1.3 times higher than a year earlier.

The market also saw the rollout of a series of large-scale projects of unprecedented size. Major developers such as Vinhomes, BIM Group, Sunshine Group, Ecopark Group, Eurowindow Holdings and Xuan Cau Holdings simultaneously launched projects spanning hundreds to thousands of hectares. In terms of scale and investment, often exceeding VND 10 trillion, with several projects reaching the billion-dollar level, 2025 stands out in the more than 30-year history of Vietnam’s real estate market.

Market activity remained strong alongside the supply surge. VARS data show that over the past  nine months of 2025, the absorption rate of newly launched supply reached 68%, equivalent to more than 58,000 successful transactions, double the level recorded in the same period of 2024. Many projects were sold out shortly after launch.

A report by the Ministry of Construction indicates that nationwide there were 3,297 real estate projects in 2025, with a total scale of around 5.9 million units and total investment of approximately VND7.42 quadrillion. Commercial housing and urban area projects accounted for the bulk of the market, with 2,358 projects, or about 5.2 million units, and total investment of VND 6.74 quadrillion.

Despite the rapid increase in supply, new housing projects continued to post absorption rates of over 60%, supported by demand for owner-occupied housing as well as medium- and long-term investment.

Prices push higher

Property prices continued to climb beyond earlier forecasts. In major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, apartment prices of VND100 million per square meter have become increasingly common, with some high-end projects exceeding VND200 million per square meter. Even in suburban areas, newly launched apartments have reached record levels of VND 80-90 million per square meter.

A test for the market

Forecasts by CBRE show that between 2024 and 2027, Hanoi will receive an average of around 30,000 new apartments each year-the highest level on record. Savills estimates that in 2026-2027 alone, about 46,600 units from more than 40 projects will enter the market.

With supply set to rise further, developers face a key challenge: whether to maintain prices to protect brand positioning or adjust pricing and incentives to sustain liquidity. Analysts expect price growth to slow rather than reverse, with increasing divergence by location, project quality and developer credibility.

Nguyen Hoai An, senior director of CBRE Hanoi, said rapid price increases have raised barriers for end users. Liquidity remains healthy, but is largely driven by short-term investors and the high-end segment.

Savills Hanoi senior director Do Thu Hang said projects with good locations, completed infrastructure and professional operations are likely to hold their value, while those farther from city centers or of average quality may need price adjustments to attract buyers.

She added that both investors and homebuyers are increasingly focusing on fundamentals such as connectivity, management quality, residential density and rental potential, rather than marketing alone.

Overall, underlying demand remains strong, but the market has become more price-sensitive. For developers, competitiveness will depend increasingly on execution, after-sales service and long-term operational commitments. The year 2026 is therefore shaping up as both a turning point and a test for Vietnam’s real estate market.

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