Demographic research on the impact of population change on economic growth in Vietnam pushes for improved productivity to counterbalance the influence of the aging population.
Vietnam is now in a period known as the ‘golden population structure’, which means that for every two or more people working, there is one dependent person. At the same time, the country has one of the fastest aging speeds compared with other nations in the region.
According to statistics from a study unveiled in Hanoi on November 23, people in the 25-53 age bracket will annually contribute to economic surpluses from 2012-2040, as their income is higher than consumption costs, while others under 22 or above 53 caused increasing deficits. In 2012, citizens older than 53 recorded a deficit of more than US$9.32 billion, which is expected to triple in 2040.
Thus, the national economy will be affected if the working-age group (15 to 64 years old) does not generate more wealth.
Associate Professor Giang Thanh Long, leader of the research team, proposed boosting productivity among young labourers, devising policies to utilise the working capacity of senior citizens and improving the health care system.
Ritsu Nacken, Acting Representative of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) in Vietnam, underscored capitalising on the golden stage.
Associate Professor Do Van Thanh, Deputy Director of the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecasting, recommended focusing on developing key sectors and providing labour market information in longer terms of up to 20 years.
This would help elevate overall vocational quality across the nation, Thanh said.