VOV.VN - The temperature may rise by 6°C in Vietnam by the end of 21st century if climate change is not prevented, French and Vietnamese scientists warned in a joint research project.
More than 60 French and Vietnamese scientists took part in a study assessing climate change impact on Vietnam’s socio-economic affairs, using a new quantitative modeling tool, called “General Monetary and Multisectoral Macrodynamics for the Ecological Shift” (GEMMES).
They found Vietnam experienced an average annual temperature rise of about 0.89°C between 1958 and 2018 (or 0.15°C/decade). However, the highest increase was experienced in the last decade when an increase of 0.231°C /decade was recorded in the 1986-2018 period.
Models project that the average temperature increase in Vietnam would be 1.13±0.87°C under a scenario of strong reduction of global emissions in agreement with the Paris Agreement. But the temperature increase could climb to as high as 6°C if commitments on reducing greenhouse gas emissions are not met.
Scientists warned extreme heat levels could severely impact agricultural yields, destroy cities and villages, and leave many areas at risk of natural disasters increasing in both number and severity.
The Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) is for example subject to a combination of drivers of change, of which anthropogenic drivers — namely hydropower dams, sand mining and groundwater extractions — pose the greatest threats in this first half of the century, while climate change will probably to dominate in the second half of the century.
At a recent conference discussing the GEMMES report, scientists pointed out future climate change depends on countries’ joint efforts in radically reducing greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Paris agreement.
They said climate change could give rise to a significant impact on a variety of sectors such as health (mortality increase, higher incidence of infectious diseases), agriculture, energy, total factor productivity or labour productivity. The cumulative direct economic impact on these sectors represents an average of 1.8% of annual GDP losses in the case of a temperature increase of 1°C relative to the pre-industrial period 1851–1900. This loss becomes 4.5% for a 1.5°C increase, 6.7% for a 2°C increase, and up to 10.8% for a 3°C increase.
Despite significant efforts in responding to climate change made over the years, crucial challenges are lying ahead, including the lack of technical and financial resources for adaptation, the need for capacity-building actions at the local level, the necessary focus on the structural drivers of vulnerability as well as the integration of climate change into a holistic institutional scheme.
Scientists therefore underscored the need to strengthen data gathering availability, encourage local resilience and mainstream adaptation into development planning.