Why Vietnam believes its double-digit growth ambition is within reach

Critics question the target, but researchers reject their arguments

As global economic uncertainty persists and geopolitical competition intensifies, Vietnam's goal of achieving double-digit economic growth has attracted growing attention both at home and abroad.

While many economists and investors view the target as an ambitious yet necessary step toward accelerating development, some commentators have portrayed it as unrealistic, arguing that Vietnam lacks the economic and institutional capacity to sustain such rapid expansion.

These criticisms generally fall into three categories.

First, some argue that structural weaknesses, institutional bottlenecks and limitations in productivity make double-digit growth unattainable.

Second, others contend that pursuing rapid economic expansion would inevitably come at the expense of environmental protection and social equity, suggesting that fast growth and sustainable development are fundamentally incompatible.

Third, some commentators argue that Vietnam cannot achieve sustained high growth without fundamentally changing its political system, effectively questioning the country's current development model and the leadership role of the Communist Party of Vietnam.

Researchers from the General Department of Politics under the Vietnam People's Army reject these arguments, saying they overlook both the country's development trajectory and the reforms currently underway. They also note that such narratives risk fostering unnecessary public skepticism and undermining confidence in long-term national development strategies.

According to the government, the double-digit growth target is neither an arbitrary political aspiration nor a short-term objective. Rather, it is based on decades of accumulated development experience, economic analysis and evolving national conditions.

Four decades of economic transformation provide a strong foundation

Economic development has been central to Vietnam's modernisation strategy since the launch of the Đổi Mới (Renewal) process in 1986.

Throughout four decades of reform, Vietnam has consistently pursued rapid economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving living standards and promoting sustainable development. That approach continues to guide the country's current development strategy.

The 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in January 2026 reaffirmed the principle that economic development should serve as the foundation for long-term stability. It also emphasised the need to achieve faster and more sustainable growth in order to narrow Vietnam's development gap with more advanced economies.

Vietnam's economic performance over the past four decades provides part of the rationale behind its current ambition.

After recording average annual GDP growth of about 4.4% during 1986-1990, the country went on to sustain growth rates of 7-8% during several periods, becoming one of Asia's fastest-growing economies.

Between 2021 and 2025, despite global economic disruptions, Vietnam maintained average annual GDP growth of around 6.2%, among the highest in the region. During the same period, the economy expanded from approximately US$346.6 billion in 2020 to more than US$514 billion in 2025, making Vietnam the world's 32nd-largest economy.

Beyond expanding output, macroeconomic stability has largely been maintained, major economic balances have been under control, and continued investment in transport infrastructure, digital connectivity and industrial development has created new capacity for future growth.

These achievements, researchers agree, demonstrate that Vietnam possesses a stronger economic foundation today than at any previous stage of its modern development.

New growth drivers could support the next phase of development

Vietnam also believes that the current stage of development differs fundamentally from previous periods because of the emergence of new sources of growth.

The country’s strategic geographic location, relatively young workforce and extensive network of free trade agreements continue to support manufacturing and exports. At the same time, digital transformation, innovation, the digital economy, artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing, biotechnology, renewable energy and cultural industries are increasingly expected to become major drivers of productivity and competitiveness.

Administrative restructuring and ongoing efforts to improve governance are also intended to streamline policymaking, enhance implementation capacity and create additional development space across regions.

To unlock these opportunities, the government is pursuing a broad reform agenda focused on modernising institutions, improving the legal framework and creating a more competitive business environment.

Current priorities include encouraging investment in science and technology, expanding research and development, accelerating digital transformation and developing a highly skilled workforce capable of supporting strategic industries.

Vietnamese authorities have repeatedly stressed that faster economic growth should not come at the expense of environmental protection or social inclusion.

Instead, the country's development strategy seeks to balance economic expansion with improvements in education, healthcare, social welfare and environmental sustainability while placing people at the centre of the development process.

Viewed from this perspective, researchers argue that Vietnam's double-digit growth ambition is not based on wishful thinking, but on accumulated development experience, improving institutional capacity and emerging economic opportunities.

Whether the target is ultimately achieved will depend on the effectiveness of reform implementation and the country's ability to sustain productivity growth. However, Vietnam believes that its economic transformation over the past four decades, together with its expanding innovation capacity and continuing structural reforms, provides a credible scientific and practical basis for pursuing faster and more sustainable development.

Vietnam's economy grows 8.39% in Q2, first-half expansion tops 8%

VOV.VN - Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded an estimated 8.39% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, lifting economic growth in the first half of the year to 8.18%, according to the National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Finance on July 2.