VN economy fights COVID-19 to become top Asian performer: CNBC
VOV.VN - Media outlet CNBC of the United States published an article describing Vietnam as the top-performing Asian economy in 2020, a feat that was achieved without a single quarter of economic contraction during a period when many economies globally were greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The article notes that not every Asian economy has reported its fourth-quarter and full-year economic numbers, although estimates compiled by CNBC from available official sources and institutions such as the International Monetary Fund indicate that the country outperformed its regional peers last year.
The Vietnamese economy witnessed growth of 2.9% last year, according to Government estimates released in late December, a figure which is even better than China’s forecast-beating 2.3% growth during the same period.
“With this performance, Vietnam has delivered one of the highest growth rates in a year where the rest of the world were in deep recessions,” economists from the Bank of America Global Research said in a report published this month.
Some economists over the past years have questioned the veracity of the country’s GDP data, although plenty of economists appear to be optimistic that the Vietnamese economy will continue to record growth this year.
The article attributes the impressive level of Vietnamese economic growth to containment efforts implemented against the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite sharing a border with China, where COVID-19 was initially detected, Vietnam has reported just over 1,500 infections and 35 deaths as of January 26, in line with data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.
The country’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak has been hailed internationally as a model for other developing nations to follow, with epidemic prevention policies significantly contributing to boosting the local economy and allowing it to continue growing throughout 2020.
This strong economic run is likely continue into this year, according to economists from the Bank of America.
The bank therefore forecast that the Vietnamese economy will see growth of 9.3% in 2021, a far higher growth rate than the 6.7% expansion previously projected by the World Bank.
Furthermore, the US news outlet also attributes the country’s economic growth to the resilience of its exports.
Most notably, the Vietnamese manufacturing sector was widely credited for being the backbone of economic growth last year, with production growing due to steady export demand, a trend that economists believe is set to persist over the coming years.
“Considering that Vietnam has been a major beneficiary of the supply chain relocation/diversification trend out of China over the past several years, we see large scope for growth in Vietnamese exports in the years to come,” Fitch Solutions said in its report from December.
The country has also inked several new free trade agreements (FTAs), including the UK and the EU, a factor which will further boost trade flows, the consultancy firm added.
One potential threat to growth in Vietnam’s exports, and therefore overall economic outlook, are sanctions which may be imposed by the US, said Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics, in a report released this month.
The article also details how the Vietnamese services sector, which was badly hit during the pandemic, picked up towards the end of 2020.
Economists believe that the extent of the recovery in services, especially in relation to the tourism industry, will determine how quickly the country’s economy will return to pre-pandemic levels.
Leather describes the future outlook for tourism as “poor”. Despite this, he forecasts 10% growth for the country this year, one of the most optimistic outlooks in terms of the global market.
“By the end of 2021, we think GDP will be only 1.5% lower than it would have been had the crisis not happened. This is one of the smallest gaps in the region,” Leather notes.
