Inflation rate in 2022 forecast to stand at 2% to 3%

VOV.VN - The inflation rate for 2022 will be within reach of around 2% to 3%, lower than the 4% target set by the National Assembly (NA), according to forecast made by various experts and managers.

Nguyen Xuan Dinh, deputy head of the General Policy Department under the Ministry of Finance, said that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic last year adversely affected production and business activities across multiple fields.

Furthermore, the disruption to supply chains, the severe shortage of raw materials at times, and the change in monetary policy of some countries to match the fluid situation has impacted the prices of goods and services both nationwide and globally.

However, being proactive in forecasting, outlining price management scenarios in line with reality, carrying out appropriate fiscal, monetary, and trade policies, coupled with macroeconomic policies, have helped to harmonise common goals. These have therefore ensured a consistent market price level, controlled inflation, and removed difficulties faced by businesses.

As a result, inflation rate in 2021 was brought under control, duly achieving the targets set by the NA and the Government. The average consumer price index (CPI) for all of 2021 stood at 1.84%, with this being seen as a highlight in the Government's price management amid the challenging COVID-19 pandemic.

Regarding the inflation forecast ahead for 2022, Dr Nguyen Duc Do, deputy head of the Institute of Economics and Finance from the Academy of Finance, predicted that inflation will most likely be maintained at a low level. The reason behind this is that although the economy is in the process of recovering, output in 2022 will remain far below its full potential.

In the event that GDP this year only grows by 6.5% as the set target, or even 8% to 9% as some forecasts, the average economic growth rate of the 2020 to 2022 period will only be at 4% to 5%, lower than the 6% for the 2011 to 2020 period.

The upward momentum of gasoline prices, as well as the prices of raw materials, will slow down in 2022 in the event that the pandemic is contained and supply chains’ operations return to normal.

“In general, inflation pressure in Vietnam in 2022 is not high and CPI will continue to increase slowly. With the fully unrecovered economy and inflationary pressure from the world's basic commodity prices slowing down, it is likely that the average inflation rate in Vietnam in 2022 will be only at 1.8%," Dr Do went on to say.

According to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Ba Minh, head of the Institute of Economics – Finance under the Ministry of Finance, the COVID-19 pandemic will continue to dominate the Vietnamese economy. This will mean that the average CPI in 2022 may fluctuate and increase from 2% to 3%, below the target set by the NA.

According to economic experts, throughout the coming year it will be essential to stay active in adjusting the fiscal policy, while closely co-ordinating with the flexible monetary policy in order to create harmony, efficiency, and reasonableness with general macroeconomic policies.

It will also be necessary to make greater efforts to remove difficulties for production, business activities, and people's lives affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as controlling core inflation to create a foundation for general inflation control, they added.

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