However, the banking sector still faces the challenge of sustaining an accommodative monetary stance and low interest rates amid growing inflationary and exchange rate pressures.

According to consolidated third-quarter data from 27 listed banks, total customer lending rose by 15% compared to the end of 2024, reaching over VND13.6 quadrillion.

Twenty-two banks reported loan growth above 10%. BIDV, ABBank and Viet A Bank each rose by around 9%, while PGBank gained 7%. Saigonbank was the only one to record a decline, down 6%.

State-owned banks continued to lead in capital supply. BIDV’s outstanding loans surpassed VND2.23 quadrillion, up 8.8%, equivalent to VND180 trillion added to the economy. VietinBank reached nearly VND1.99 quadrillion, up 15.6%, and Vietcombank grew by 12.5% to VND1.63 quadrillion.

Among joint stock commercial banks, MB recorded nearly VND931.5 trillion in outstanding loans, up almost 20% since the start of the year.

MB General Director Pham Nhu Anh said the bank aimed for 25–30% growth this year, driven by the retail and SME segments. VPBank’s lending rose by 29.4% to VND896.4 trillion, while Techcombank, ACB, SHB and Sacombank all posted double-digit increases, with Techcombank up 21.4% and SHB 17%. NCB led the sector with 33% growth.

Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC) reported overall credit growth of 14.5% by the third quarter – the highest in five years.

It noted a narrowing divergence in growth rates among banks as many approached their credit ceilings and shifted focus to profitability. Credit market share has become more balanced between State-owned and major private lenders, while medium- and long-term loans have grown faster than short-term ones, signalling renewed investment and production demand.

Policy balance

Economist Nguyen Xuan Thanh from Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management said to meet the 2025 GDP target of at least 8%, credit growth of about 19-20% would be needed. This would require the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to maintain a supportive policy stance and direct credit towards productive investment.

However, rising inflation and exchange rate volatility posed major challenges, likely to persist into 2026. Thanh identified three factors driving upward pressure on market interest rates: higher inflation expectations, đồng depreciation and credit growth exceeding money supply expansion.

Although inflation remained moderate this year thanks to lower oil prices, it was expected to accelerate next year.

Thanh said, “The dong has already weakened by 3.8% against the US dollar and 13% against the euro in the first ten months and by an average of 5.1% against the currencies of Vietnam’s main trading partners.”

The SBV faced the dual task of keeping interest rates low to support growth while containing inflation and stabilising the currency.

Thanh added, “Compared with major economies, Vietnam’s inflation is the highest, yet our interest rates are the lowest - even lower than China’s. Maintaining such low rates comes at the cost of a weaker dong.”

Earlier, at the Vietnam Investment Forum 2026, Dr Nguyen Tu Anh, Director of Policy Research at VinUni University, said capital remained a crucial growth driver alongside labour, science, institutions and the environment.

If Vietnam targets GDP growth of 10% by 2030 with inflation at 3%, nominal growth would be around 13%, meaning credit must expand roughly three percentage points faster.

The country’s total credit volume would need to double over the next five years. 

Credit growth forecast to hit 19-20% this year

VOV.VN - As of the end of September, total credit to the national economy had risen 13.37% compared to the start of the year, marking the highest growth in about 15 years. At this pace, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) expects full-year credit growth to reach 19-20%.