ADB forecasts Vietnamese GDP growth at 6.6% next year

The country’s growth forecast for 2024 has been revised upward to 6.4% from 6.0%, whilst for 2025 the rise is to 6.6% from 6.2%.

ADB experts have pointed out that a strong trade performance, a resurgence in export-led manufacturing, and ongoing fiscal stimulus measures have all contributed to Vietnamese economic growth reaching 6.8% for the first three quarters of the year.

This robust rebound in export-led manufacturing and trade, bolstered by the resilient economy of the United States, is expected to continue supporting GDP growth moving forward.

Accelerated public investment coupled with accommodative fiscal and monetary policies are anticipated to further stimulate domestic demand.

Despite some of the severe impacts caused by Typhoon Yagi in various parts of the country, the swift response by the Government and recovery efforts limited the impacts on growth.

Think tanks emphasised that Southeast Asia’s growth outlook for the year has also improved, revised up to 4.7% from 4.5%, with this being driven by stronger manufacturing exports and public capital spending in larger economies.

The subregion’s manufacturing and trade sectors benefited from the global electronics upturn and shifts in global supply chains, with high-income tech exporters enjoying gains from rising semiconductor sales.

Growth picked up in Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and Vietnam, which was duly supported by domestic demand, lower inflation, and sustained public investment.

While Vietnam sees rising foreign investment, other Southeast Asian economies like Indonesia and the Philippines are on track to meet previous growth forecasts.

However, experts analysed that geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and severe weather events like Typhoon Yagi and Tropical Storm Trami pose risks to growth, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure in the time ahead.