Vietnam Quarterly Macroeconomic Report-Third Quarter 2019 unveiled

VOV.VN - The Vietnam Institute for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, co-hosted a launching workshop in Hanoi on October 10 to unveil the Quarter III Independent Assessment of Vietnam’s Macroeconomic Performance in the presence of several senior economic experts.

vietnam quarterly macroeconomic report-third quarter 2019 unveiled hinh 0
At the workshop
Upon addressing the event, VEPR President Nguyen Duc Thanh outlined the global economic picture, before giving a more detailed look at the Vietnamese economy during the third quarter of this year to participants.

According to the report, the year’s third quarter saw growth rates slow down in many economies worldwide. In addition, oil prices suffered unpredictable fluctuations due to trade tension occurring between the United States and China, Japan and the Republic of Korea, in addition to the recent attacks on the world's largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia.

Furthermore, there remains increasing concerns regarding China's economy due to its low economic growth coupled with the waning power of the Yuan. This can be seen with the Asian superpower’s Purchasing Managers’ Index remaining under 50, while growth-enhancing packages proved to be ineffective.

Additionally, the US’s economy decelerated, causing the Fed to cut its interest rates twice in the third quarter.

European economies also enervated, resulting in the European Central Bank reducing interest rates. Meanwhile, the Japanese government has been attracting additional foreign workers in order to compensate for an overall labour shortage.

Regionally, the economic growth of ASEAN countries decelerated. Thailand has been offering preferential packages in a bid to attract companies looking to move production from China. Simultaneously, most central banks in ASEAN countries cut interest rates as a means of spurring growth.

Vietnam’s economy grew at an annual rate of 7.31 per cent during the reviewed period. Growth of the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sectors fell due to a range of unfavorable factors, while the foreign direct investment sector continued to act as the main contributor to growth through exports.

Regarding the situation of local enterprises, the number of operations temporarily suffered a sharp decrease.

35,316 newly registered businesses sprung up during the third quarter, with a total registered capital of VND430.6 trillion, a rise of 37 per cent on-year. Meanwhile, the number of firms which suspended operations continued to decrease to 12,505.

Consumer Price Index enjoyed an annual rise of 2.23 per cent, the figure after nine months was 2.5 per cent, however there remains a high risk of rising inflation due to an increase in food prices as a result of epidemics, increasing education prices, and energy prices.

The VND/USD exchange rate at commercial banks suffered fluctuations while the rate at central exchanges increased slightly. The exchange rate at commercial banks hovered around 23,275 VND/USD. On September 13, the State Bank of Vietnam announced reductions to the operating interest rate of 0.25 per cent.

In general, the domestic gold price followed global trends and was instable due to economic growth and trade tensions among countries holding strong currencies. It is forecast that the price of domestic gold will remain high during the next quarter.


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