A housing project in limbo for years in Hanoi could be traded again in the Year of the Pig. Photo by VnExpress/Ba Do
Speaking with VnExpress
about the capital city's real estate market in 2019, several experts forecast that the supply of apartments from new projects in 2019 will decline significantly compared to 2018.
Vu Cuong Quyet, general director of Northern Green Land Service and Real Estate Joint Stock Company, said that several projects with tens of thousands of apartments had been launched at the end of 2018.
"However, in 2019 the number of new projects according to our calculation can be counted on fingers. New supply of apartments in all segments is expected to be lower than in 2018. Therefore, the market will mainly consume inventory of the projects previously introduced," said Quyet.
Real estate service firm CBRE has said that in 2019, Hanoi’s supply will mainly came from projects launched in Gia Lam, Dai Mo, Tay Mo, Ha Dong and Dong Anh districts.
Half of new supply is located in the western part of the city, while in the eastern part, about 30 percent of the goods will be marketed this year.
In the high-end segment, a CBRE report said that recent developments in the 'golden land' in Hanoi show signs of the luxury segment returning after two years without new supply.
Regarding the liquidity rate in the apartment segment, experts believe that products costing less than VND25 million ($1,073) per square meter will still lead the market.
According to Quyet of Northern Green Land, market liquidity in 2019 would not explode or break out in the apartment segment but remain stable.
His analysis points out that the highest demand for housing will be in the low-cost options priced under VND15 million ($644) per square meter. However, options in this price range are very few or located too far off from the city centre to attract buyers.
Therefore, Quyet said, mid-range products, priced at between VND16 million and VND25 million, promise the best liquidity, with buyers buying them mainly for living in them, and the prices will only fluctuate by 3-5 percent.
"The liquidity leader this year will be mid-range apartments. However, high-end apartments in inner city are still well-traded because of the scarce supply," said Nguyen Van Dinh, general secretary of the Real Estate Brokerage Association.
He also forecasts that prices of mid-range and affordable apartments may increase by 3-5 percent, while high-end apartments will increase by more than 5 percent due to scarce supply.
Another segment that continues to be positively evaluated is land. Given the optimistic assessment of economic growth in the capital, experts with the Vietnam Real Estate Brokerage Association also say that the demand for real estate investment remains high and land will still be a sought-after product by investment-savvy individuals.
According to Pham Duc Toan, general director of EZ Vietnam Real Estate Investment and Development Joint Stock Company, projects launched in 2018 created good liquidity, the goods introduced were sold out, including those traded in the form of capital contribution contracts.
However, the supply of adjacent pieces of land and villas this year is not large, according to Toan. The supply is mainly in suburban districts with moderate-scale projects, which offers only a few dozen lots.
In addition to new projects coming out, he said, some places in the region where progress was delayed can also be restarted, adding more supply to the market.
"This year, in the context some investment products such as resort real estate are slowing down and the provincial land market direction is still unclear, landed houses on the edge of Hanoi will still be a big attraction channel, even those which are yet to meet conditions to be on sale," said Toan.
However, he advised that investors ensure legal soundness of deals and be aware of risks.
Quyet also told VnExpress that because of limited supply, land and landed houses in Hanoi in the New Year will still remain attractive.
The psychology of northern investors who like land and landed houses is a factor in this case. Also, these products are mostly outside the belt area no.3 and in the districts on the edge of the city, so the price is suitable for investment.
"This year, not only new supply around Ha Dong, Nam Tu Liem and Hoai Duc areas, but also projects in Dong Anh and Thanh Tri districts with more affordable prices will bring more diverse products to the market pool," he said.
"Land plots will explode more strongly than in 2018 with projects in districts like Ha Dong, Gia Lam and Dong Anh," said Dinh of the Real Estate Brokerage Association, predicting that land prices will increase over 10 percent compared to 2018.